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When looking at the current market, or projecting market condition in the months or years to come, the key factors that are essential to analyze remain the same – job growth, interest rates and the months of unsold supply. All three factors drive the sales activity intensity in a particular area, and in the Portland and Vancouver area,
job growth is strong, interest rates are in the threes and the more affordable and mid-price ranges are at a severe shortage of unsold inventory.
These market factors all bode well for a positive year 2020
in the residential real
estate market.
SCROLL DOWN
YEAR
J. LENNOX SCOTT
CHAIRMAN & CEO
HOUSING
2020
FORECAST
Portland / vancouver
UNBELIEVABLY LOW
INTEREST RATES
BUYER READY, DAY ONE™
strong
JOB GROWTH
SELLING IN
TODAY'S MARKET
MORE AFFORDABLE
AND MID-PRICE RANGES
strong
job growTH
unbelievably low
interest rates
severe shortage of
unsold properties
All key
indicators in
the residential
real estate market
are positive.
In the spring, we expect to see frenzy sales activity intensity for homes in Portland and Vancouver priced up to $350,000. For homes priced $350,000 to $500,000, we anticipate surge sales activity intensity. Homes $500,000 to $750,000 will see strong sales activity intensity.
The bustling local real estate market (especially in the more affordable and mid-price ranges) in Portland and Vancouver is partially fueled by a strong local economy and excellent interest rates. These factors will continue to positively impact the local market in 2020.
In 2020, we will see seller gridlock in many areas in the more affordable and mid-price ranges. These gridlock conditions occur as a result of sellers hesitating to put their home on the market for fear that they may not be able to lock in their next home. This leads to fewer new listings coming on the market.
More affordable and mid-price ranges
Every year, housing cycle can be divided into six phases. When comparing the number of new resale listings by month, the trends are cyclical and predictable. Though every year is slightly different, the main trends remain the same.
The six phases of the yearly housing cycle
No matter what phase of the housing cycle we’re in, the best time to sell is
when the timing is right for you. There is no issue with buying and selling within same-market timing – the result is often the same net seller asset equity any time of the year. While this is typically the case, there are certain scenarios that could have a differential. When looking to sell, it’s important to work with an experienced broker to showcase your home in the best light to get the best price.
Selling in today's market
The building blocks of a strong housing market are in place for 2020. For many
consumers, the biggest challenge they will face when looking to buy a home in 2020 is related to available homes for sale in the more affordable and mid-price ranges.
For those looking to buy this year, it’s highly recommended to begin the process early by connecting with a trusted broker for a market consultation. Being Buyer Ready, Day One™ is essential to get a home in today’s real estate market. Beginning the financing conversation early is also key – it can help buyers understand what they can afford and create a higher level of seller certainty. The latter can provide a leg up above other buyers in the market, leading a seller to accept your offer.
Lawrence Yun, National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist, projects interest rates will remain low and fairly stable in 2020.
With excellent interest rates, strong home price appreciation and more, there will be many opportunities for buyers and sellers in the markets we serve in Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California.
Home buyers: looking ahead to 2020
1 Portland and Vancouver area refers to Clark and Multnomah counties. 2 As of press time.
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